The Australian share market fell (-2.7%) in November posting its worst monthly return since March. Growing concerns about the exuberance in AI and Technology companies and a steep fall in the Commonwealth Bank share price (-11.2%) were to blame. Smaller companies have been significantly outperforming their larger counter parts of recent, by (+6.9%) over the past 3 months and (+14.0%) over the past year.
Investors looking for income from the Australian share market continue to be disappointed with the current dividend yield at 3.5%. Apart from the Covid years this is the only time in the past 50 years where both the RBA cash rate and share market dividend yield have been below 4%.
Only 3 of the 11 sectors managed to finish in the positives with Health Care (+2.0%) and Consumer Staples (+1.6%) the best. At the other end of the scale, Information Technology (-11.6%), Financials (-6.5%) and Real Estate (-3.9%) all went backwards. The Australian IT sector has now fallen (-20.7%) over the past 3 months and gone nowhere over the past 5 years. The NASDAQ which is a barometer of the US Technology sector is up (+136.5%) over the same timeframe.
The world share index was up (+0.2%) for the month. The US market (+0.2%), the Nasdaq broke a 7-month run of positive returns by falling (-1.5%). Japan fell (-4.1%), China (-1.7%), Germany (-0.5%) while both France and the UK were flat. India (+2.0%) hit a record high and is expected to overtake Japan as the world’s 4th largest economy in the next few months.
House prices grew (+1.0%) in November, with Perth (+2.4%), Brisbane (+1.9%) and Adelaide (+1.9%) leading the way. Melbourne prices increased (+0.3%) for the month, but the city looks likely to finish the year as the worst performing capital city for 2025.
The RBA left rates unchanged at 3.6% and a rise in the inflation rate to 3.8% means we have likely reached the bottom of the cutting cycle. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% and the Australian dollar rose (+0.3%) against the US dollar.
The price of Iron Ore fell (-1.3%) and the price of Oil (-3.8%). Precious metals had a very strong month with Gold up (+5.9%) and Silver (+16.1%). The price of Bitcoin fell (-16.3%) and is down (-8.9%) for the year to date.
Christmas
We will be taking some time off over Christmas. Our office will be closed from Wednesday the 24th of December until Monday the 5th of January.
Thank you for your continuing support throughout 2025. We wish you a wonderful festive season and good fortune in 2026.
