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Economic Update – January 2026

The Australian share market was up (+1.7%) for January as 2026 got off to a positive start.

The Energy sector climbed (+10.6%) and the Resources sector (+9.5%). If you took Resources out of the index the Australian Share Market would have actually fallen (-1.0%) last month. Things didn’t look so good elsewhere with Banks (-2.0%), Real Estate (-2.7%) and Technology (-9.4%) all down. The Technology sector has now lost (-26.9%) in the past 3 months.

The World Share Index was up (+1.7%) on a currency hedged basis. Japan (+5.9%), China (+3.8%) and the UK (+3.0%) were all very strong while the US market returned (+1.5%). Emerging markets remain the place to be after a strong (+8.8%) return for January.

The Dow Jones hit a milestone on the 6th of January when it went through 50,000 points. The Dow Jones is one of the oldest and most followed share market indexes in the US. It has been in existence since 1896 and took until 1972 to get to 1,000 points. In 1999 it hit 10,000, in 2020 passed 30,000, 40,000 last May and now 50,000.

The negative impacts of the AI revolution seem to have been the theme of 2026 so far. US software providers have fallen (-21.3%) in value as companies find AI can possibly do the same thing cheaper and faster. US Financial companies aren’t doing much better, down (-13.2%) for the year to date. Compounding that, Microsoft AI’s chief recently announced that – “White-collar work, where you’re sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”

House values rose (+0.8%) in January. Sydney (+0.2%) and Melbourne (+0.1%) didn’t do a lot, while Brisbane (+1.6%), Perth (+2.0%) and Adelaide (+1.2%) continue to lead the way. Great if you own a house, but figures compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reinforce just how hard it is to break into the market. The average mortgage taken out by a homeowner is now $736,00 which is almost a 50% increase over the past 5 years. Based on current interest rates to pay that off over 30 years will cost just over $50,000p.a.

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. The RBA didn’t meet in January, but did raise rates earlier this month (for the first time since November 2023) to 3.85%. The Australian dollar rose significantly against most major currencies – (+4.4%) against the US, (+3.4%) against the Euro and (+2.7%) against the Japanese Yen.

Commodities prices went crazy, Oil (+16.1%), Gold (+8.6%), Silver (+11.0%) and Copper (+5.9%). The Iron Ore price fell (-1.3%) and Bitcoin was the worst asset class for January, falling (-10.8%). That means Bitcoin has lost almost half its value since October 2025.

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